ClaimWhose voiceWhere it stands
A superlearner should start from nothing, discover far beyond what humans know and be droppable into any stream of experience.
Target
A definition and a target; no demonstration.
AlphaGo used human data and took about two years to beat Lee Sedol; AlphaZero, without human data, surpassed it in hours, beating the world champion in chess in four hours and taking 'a couple of days' in Go.
Industry context
His recollection of his own earlier work at DeepMind, with the Go time hedged as 'I think'; this page did not check DeepMind's papers.
The company has a state-of-the-art large-scale RL stack and is building crucible environments.
Company-reported
No system, environment or evaluation is public.
Rewards will not be written to define 'science' or 'language'; agents get simple objectives and discover complex behaviour.
Target
He says many rewards have been tried with no single answer; no agent has done this yet.
They could run experiments using about 100,000 times the compute of OpenAI's hide-and-seek.
Company-reported
He says 'probably could'; no cluster size or experiment already run is given.
They are first customers of the largest cluster on Google Cloud, starting by the end of the year, which Lasse also calls 'one month from now'.
Company-reported
The two timings do not match (the episode was published on 13 October); no size is given.
The company has hired 20 people in total, kept small on purpose.
Company-reported
His statement; no list.
If superintelligence can be built in simulation it will be ten to a hundred times faster and safest.
Guest's judgment
His judgment; he also grants some things only exist in reality and that transfer should not be expected.
Alignment and monitoring built on language and human-data priors will increasingly fall short as agents get stronger.
Guest's judgment
His view; he says he does not have all the answers and floats shadow actions and supervising superintelligences.
Anything done in the real world will be gated on enough evidence from the science of superintelligence.
Target
A commitment; no standard of evidence is stated and no one is named to judge.
Within a year there will be 'extremely strong evidence' the approach is right; true superintelligence within three years, which he first put at three to five and has pulled in because of coding agents.
Target
He calls it a reasonable range of uncertainty; his definition of superintelligence is given in words, with no measurable criterion.
Whether scaling laws have appeared in their reinforcement learning.
Not yet closed
Pressed, Lasse says scaling laws differ for RL and that it is something they are pushing toward; he does not say they have seen one.